The Raiders, Titans and Giants all lost in Week 15, but New York jumped from the third overall pick up to the first overall pick because it has a slightly lower strength of schedule (.577) than Las Vegas (.579) or Tennessee (.597).

According to The Athletic’s playoff predictor, the Raiders still stand a 47% chance of getting the first pick with the Titans (17%), Giants (14%), Browns (12%) and Jets (9%) the only other teams above 1%.

However, I feel like the G-Men still have the inside track because their remaining strength of schedule is significantly lower than the Raiders and Titans (.345 to .405 to .476), which means the Giants would have the tiebreaker with the other two two-loss teams and land the top pick if all three finish the season with the same overall record.

New York has earned the first overall pick in the NFL draft just two times before. The Giants drafted SMU halfback Kyle Rote in 1951. Rote finished his career as a four-time Pro Bowler, and held several team records when he retired a decade later. They drafted Auburn running back Tucker Frederickson in 1965 with Hall of Famers Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers on the board.

The Bears would select Butkus and Sayers with the third and fourth overall picks. Frederickson, a Heisman Trophy runner-up, made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but missed his second season with a knee injury, and never fully regained his early form.

Notably, the last time the Giants selected at the top of the draft, they traded up with the San Diego Chargers in 2004, sending the No. 4 overall pick, a 2004 third-rounder, a 2005 first-rounder and a 2005 fifth-rounder to the Bolts for the right to draft Eli Manning.

This time around, they’d likely trade down because the one thing the Giants have going for them is a franchise quarterback in Jaxson Dart (assuming he can stay healthy). However, I don’t do trades this early in the draft process, and the first pick is too early to take a wide receiver or offensive lineman in this draft.

So we’ll address a disappointing defense this time around.

Here are some key dates going forward before we get to the draft in Pittsburgh (April 23-25):

— Jan. 5: FCS Showcase in Nashville, Tenn.

— Jan. 10: Hula Bowl in DeLand, Fla.

— Jan. 10-12: Wild-card weekend

— Jan. 14: Tentative deadline for players with remaining eligibility to make their draft intentions official.

— Jan. 17-18: Divisional playoffs

— Jan. 18: Tropical Bowl in Orlando, Fla.

— Jan. 23: Tentative deadline for players with remaining eligibility who participated in the CFP title game to make their draft intentions official.

— Jan. 25: AFC and NFC championship games

— Jan. 27: East-West Shrine Bowl in Frisco, Texas

— Jan. 31: Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala.

— Feb. 8: Super Bowl LX in San Francisco

— Feb. 17-March 3: Franchise/transition player designation period

— Feb. 23-March 2: NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis

— Early March: Colleges can begin hosting pro days

— March 11: New league year begins at 1 p.m. (i.e. free agency)

MOCK PREAMBLE

This is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season’s draft class, and which teams they’d match up well with considering the current draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I’ll attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.

According to The Huddle Report, I was the second-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print last season. I tied for first overall (out of 172) covering a five-year period between 2019 and 2023.

Considering the NFL doesn’t have an offseason, the draft has become the Super Bowl of the league’s second season, and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.

Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.

Here’s an updated version of my 2026 NFL mock draft (Record through Week 15):

FIRST ROUND

— 1. N.Y. Giants (2-12) — Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State, Jr.

Whoever GM Joe Schoen hires to replace Brian Daboll will give us more clues on how this organization plans to proceed. Building support around franchise QB Jaxson Dart makes the most sense, but I still believe this is too high for a receiver or O-lineman in this draft. Reese has the talent to go first overall. He’s played off-ball linebacker, but I could easily see him as a full-time edge rusher in the pros, very similar to Micah Parsons or the Giants’ 2025 first-rounder Abdul Carter. Reese features a rare blend of size (6-4, 240) and elite athleticism, has sideline-to-sideline range and the natural instincts to make plays all over the field playing off the ball. He’s also produced 6 1/2 sacks and 10 tackles for loss as a primary edge rusher for the Buckeyes this season. Drafting Reese would also allow Schoen to trade Kayvon Thibodeaux, who will be in the final year of his rookie deal next season. Top needs: DL, G, CB

— 2. Las Vegas (2-12) — Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana, Jr.

Geno Smith isn’t the answer at quarterback, so barring Tom Brady coming out of retirement or cloning himself, the Raiders can’t afford to ignore the most important position in sports this offseason. Perhaps Brady’s pal (and Las Vegas GM) John Spytek would prefer to trade for Kyler Murray or Mac Jones and draft a QB to develop on day two or three, but if they end up drafting this high, I don’t see how they pass on a signal-caller. Especially if Mendoza or Oregon’s Dante Moore is available. The Heisman Trophy-winner has the prototypical size (6-5, 225) scouts favor, good arm talent and functional athleticism. He’s not a finished product by any means — pressure can affect his footwork and his deep ball accuracy needs refinement — but he just showcased his ability to step up in big moments in the Hoosiers’ gritty 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Top needs: QB, Edge, WR

— 3. Tennessee (2-12) — Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami, Jr.

Traditionally after drafting a franchise QB with the first overall pick in the previous draft, an organization would utilize the next draft to stockpile offensive talent in support of the QB. There aren’t any offensive lineman or wide receivers worthy of a top-3 pick in this draft class, so the Titans would likely focus on their pass rush if they aren’t wowed by a trade offer. The 6-foot-3, 275-pound Bain doesn’t have prototypical length, but the ACC Defensive Player of the Year possesses raw power, first-step explosion and can anchor against the run when he’s not terrorizing quarterbacks. Comparisons to Hall of Famer Dwight Freeney are apt. I also see shades of longtime Eagles star Brandon Graham. Top needs: Edge, WR, CB

— 4. Cleveland (3-11) — Spencer Fano, T, Utah, Jr.

One thing has been very clear this last month: Shedeur Sanders should have been starting over Dillon Gabriel all along. Let’s say the Browns are impressed enough by Sanders to forgo drafting yet another QB in April. This pick would almost certainly come down to an offensive lineman or wide receiver. There isn’t a Joe Alt or Penei Sewell in this draft class, but Fano is a big (6-6, 302), powerful, athletic anchor in the run game, and his footwork has improved in pass protection this season. The consensus All-American just became the first-ever Utes’ lineman to win the Outland Trophy after not allowing a sack, and only five QB pressures during the regular season. Top needs: QB, T, CB

— 5. N.Y. Jets (3-11) — Dante Moore, QB, Oregon, So.

After a busy trade deadline, GM Darren Mougey has enough draft capital to call his shot with a QB if he needs to move up. In this scenario, Mougey keeps his powder dry and still lands a potential franchise signal-caller. Moore’s ceiling is the highest in a QB group that won’t include LaNorris Sellers or Arch Manning. He’s accurate, throws a catchable deep ball, and has shown the ability to make plays outside of the pocket. Moore would likely end up as a top-5 pick if he declares. He could very well end up going first overall, depending on what team ends up making the selection. His offensive coordinator Will Stein leaving the Ducks to become Kentucky’s head coach has created uncertainty. I was originally confident he’d stay in school. Top needs: QB, CB, DL

— 6. Arizona (3-11) — Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame, Jr.

The Cardinals could be in the market for a QB if they decide to move on from Kyler Murray. Otherwise, almost every running back that has suited up for Arizona this season has ended up on injured reserve. Plus, James Conner is officially on the wrong side of 30. Love features elite size (6-foot, 214 pounds), patience and balance on top of home run capabilities with TD runs of 98 and 94 yards the last two seasons. The Doak Walker Award-winner is explosive, elusive, powerful and versatile. Top needs: OL, DL, WR

— 7. Washington (4-10) — Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn, Jr.

The Commanders’ biggest problem is they can’t keep Jayden Daniels healthy. Their second biggest problem is they need more playmakers at all three levels of their defense. Faulk is a 6-foot-6, 285-pound edge who was the No. 9 player on Bruce Feldman’s 2025 “Freaks List,” reportedly squatting 700 pounds and benching 415. He’s a versatile chess piece on the D-line in odd or even fronts, and has even shown the ability to stand up and play outside linebacker. Faulk doesn’t turn 21 until next September. Top needs: Edge, LB, CB

— 8. New Orleans (4-10) — Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State, Jr.

There’s a chance Saints GM Mickey Loomis is fine with Tyler Shough being the starter next year after drafting him with the 40th overall pick in April’s draft, but if that’s the case, Loomis needs to surround Shough with more weapons on offense. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound playmaker has 838 yards and nine TDs on 48 receptions in 10 games so far, and is half of the best receiver duo in the country, opposite Jeremiah Smith. Tate has shown immense growth in his technical skills, especially his route running, which has transformed him from an explosive deep threat to a more complete receiver who can threaten a defense at all three levels. He’d pair nicely with former Buckeye Chris Olave. Top needs: QB, Edge, WR

— 9. Cincinnati (4-10) — Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State, Jr.

What part of the Bengals’ defense doesn’t need to be completely overhauled? Downs won the Thorpe Award, the Lott IMPACT Trophy and earned consensus All-American honors this season. He’s the heart and soul of a Buckeyes defense that leads the nation in points (8.2) and yards allowed (213.5) per game, and finished ninth in the Heisman voting. Downs is a fluid, explosive athlete who’s seemingly always a step ahead of everybody else on the football field. He’s ranked No. 2 on my big board, but I doubt he ends up going in the top 5 because safeties are usually undervalued in the draft. Top needs: Edge, CB, G

— 10. L.A. Rams from Atlanta (5-9) — Francis Mauigoa, T, Miami, Jr.

GM Les Snead acquired this pick by trading out of the first round back in April. Snead has to plan for a future without Matthew Stafford at some point. The Rams are a true Super Bowl contender, so we’ll have to let the season play out before we have a better idea of what Stafford’s future plans are, but even if the future Hall of Famer returns, a QB could be the target here. Otherwise, right tackle could be a top priority if veteran Rob Havenstein bolts in free agency. Mauigoa, a former five-star recruit, is big (6-6, 325), powerful, athletic and plays with a mauling mentality at the tackle position. Many scouts believe he’d be even better on the interior, but he’s talented enough to stay at tackle. Top needs: T, DB, QB

— 11. Miami (6-8) — Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama, Jr.

Cornerback may be the biggest position of need for the Dolphins, depending how you feel about Tua Tagovailoa, but the pass rush needs to be addressed as well. Miami has won four of its last five, but the Dolphins have won recently almost in spite of Tagovailoa, with a strong running game and defense. Simpson only has 13 collegiate starts to go off of, but the small sample size shows he has the ability to process defenses quickly, and is accurate under pressure. He’d be perfect for any coach running a variation of Kyle Shanahan’s or Sean McVay’s offense. However, the list of QBs taken in the first round with fewer than 20 collegiate starts in the past decade: Trey Lance (17), Mac Jones (17), Kyler Murray (17), Dwayne Haskins (14), Anthony Richardson (13) and Mitchell Trubisky (13). It wouldn’t surprise me if Simpson stays in school considering his recent struggles, especially in the blowout loss against Georgia in the SEC title game. Top needs: CB, OL, Edge

— 12. Minnesota (6-8) — Peter Woods, DT, Clemson, Jr.

The Vikings brought in both Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen to shore up their defensive line, and the results have been mixed. Plus, Hargrave (33 years old next season) and Allen (31) are also on the wrong side of 30. Woods needs a more diversified pass-rush plan to unlock his full potential, but he already possesses an elite combination of strength and athleticism for his size (6-3, 315) — he’s No. 5 on Bruce Feldman’s list — and has flashed disruptive capabilities. Violent hands and elite diagnostic instincts are his weapons of choice. Top needs: CB, DL, LB

— 13. Kansas City (6-8) — Caleb Lomu, T, Utah, So.

The Chiefs’ dynasty may be over, but the window will remain wide open as long as Patrick Mahomes is upright and healthy. Mahomes may not be ready by the start of next season after suffering a torn ACL and LCL in his left leg. Once he is, K.C. will need an upgrade over Jawaan Taylor, the most penalized player in the NFL the last three seasons. Lomu earned Freshman All-American honors in 2024, and possesses this draft class’ highest ceiling at offensive tackle. He’s already a technically proficient pass blocker with prototypical size (6-6, 305), elite athleticism and solid footwork. He’ll need to add strength to improve as a run blocker, and hold his own against powerful pass rushers in the pros. Top needs: RB, DL, TE

— 14. Dallas (6-7-1) — David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech, Sr.

Let’s assume the Joneses handle their business and resign wide receiver George Pickens and running back Javonte Williams to long-term extensions. Then next year’s draft will be all about improving the defense. Bailey has rare speed for someone who is 6-3, 250, having hit 22.16 mph — he’s No. 43 on Bruce Feldman’s 2025 “Freaks List.” There’s still work to do, but he’s also improved as a run defender during his time with the Red Raiders. Bailey, along with teammate Jacob Rodriguez, was named a finalist for the Lombardi Award. Rodriguez won. Top needs: Edge, S, LB

— 15. Baltimore (7-7) — Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State, Jr.

Securing Lamar Jackson another weapon on the outside makes sense when you consider DeAndre Hopkins was a short-term addition, and Rashod Bateman has proven to be better suited for a complimentary role. Tyson has been hampered by a hamstring injury this season, but he pretty much picked up where he left off last year when he’s been on the field. He’s a route-technician with inside-out versatility and the ability to make plays at all three levels. Tyson is expected to skip the Sun Bowl to focus on draft prep. Top needs: Edge, RB, C

— 16. Carolina (7-7) — CJ Allen, LB, Georgia, Jr.

The Panthers’ defense has improved from last season’s historically bad unit, but they’re still lacking a playmaker in the middle to bring it all together. Plus, Christian Rozeboom, their leading tackler, could leave in free agency. It’s hard not to see former Bulldog and current Ravens’ All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith when watching Allen. Both are 6-1, 235 pounds and are elite processors. Both are strong finishers against the run, and both are capable pass-rushers when called upon. Allen was also named a finalist for the Butkus Award, an honor Smith earned in 2017. Top needs: Edge, DB, LB

— 17. Detroit (8-6) — Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State, Sr.

Jack Campbell is the only linebacker on the Lions who won’t be a free agent after this season. Styles is the second freakishly athletic linebacker from the Buckeyes to appear in this mock — he’s No. 10 on Bruce Feldman’s list. The senior captain is rangy with rare speed and explosiveness for his frame (6-4, 240), and showcases his safety background in coverage by locking down tight ends and running backs in space. Top needs: Edge, LB, CB

— 18. N.Y. Jets from Indianapolis (8-6) — Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU, Sr.

I’m anticipating the Jets replenishing the defense with at least one of their two first-rounders, after trading their two best defenders away at the deadline. Delane doesn’t have elite size (5-11, 191) or deep speed, but he’s sticky, instinctual and can play multiple positions in the secondary. The Virginia Tech transfer has 45 tackles, 11 pass breakups and two interceptions this season, and was a finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award. Top needs: QB, CB, DL

— 19. Tampa Bay (7-7) — Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State, Jr.

Buccaneers starting left guard Ben Bredeson is a free agent after this season. Ioane was one of the few bright spots for the Nittany Lions this season, earning second-team AP All-American recognition. He’s an elite pass-blocker and a strong anchor in the run game, while featuring impressive movement skills for a man his size (6-4, 335). Top needs: LB, G, Edge

— 20. Pittsburgh (8-6) — Makai Lemon, WR, USC, Jr.

Aaron Rodgers could very well retire at the end of this season, but regardless of who is under center, the Steelers are severely lacking in playmakers at receiver. Lemon (5-11, 195) is a quick, efficient route runner who is a demon in the slot and capable of frustrating tacklers with his abilities after the catch. He had a tremendous junior year, earning the Biletnikoff Award with 79 receptions for 1,156 yards and 11 TDs for the Trojans. Top needs: QB, WR, CB

— 21. Philadelphia (9-5) — Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon, Jr.

Eagles tight ends Dallas Goedert, Grant Calcaterra, Kylen Granson and Harrison Bryant are all facing free agency after this season. Sadiq isn’t in the same class as Brock Bowers or Tyler Warren as a prospect, but he’s an impressive athlete who has showcased downfield playmaking ability and has legit upside as a run-blocker in the pros. The 6-3 Sadiq came to Eugene two years ago at 220 pounds, but bulked up to 245. According to Bruce Feldman’s list (No. 11): “He vertical jumped 41.5 inches this summer, power cleaned 365 pounds and bench pressed 435.” He was also the Ducks’ first-ever finalist for the John Mackey Award. Top needs: T, TE, Edge

— 22. Houston (9-5) — Kadyn Proctor, T, Alabama, Jr.

The Texans’ overhaul of their offensive line that began last year is far from over. Proctor took his lumps starting for the Crimson Tide as a true freshman in 2023, but he showed legit improvement down the stretch and that carried over to his sophomore year. His junior season has been a grab bag of inconsistency, but it’s nearly impossible to find 360-pound athletes who are as powerful, explosive and surprisingly agile as he is (he’s No. 2 on Bruce Feldman’s list). Proctor was a finalist for the Lombardi Award, and he’d be an upgrade at tackle or guard for Houston. Top needs: DL, RB, CB

— 23. Dallas from Green Bay (9-4-1) — Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson, Jr.

The Cowboys traded for All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson at the deadline. Both are solid additions to a terrible defense, but there’s still work to do in the secondary. Releasing the oft-injured Trevon Diggs this offseason could free up significant cap space. Terrell could follow in his brother A.J.’s footsteps as a first-round cornerback from the Tigers. He’s a much better run defender than his brother, despite being a bit undersized (5-11, 180). His route-recognition and ball skills helped him earn second-team All-ACC honors as a sophomore, and he’s mastered the “Peanut Punch” with eight forced fumbles the last two seasons. He also had three sacks this season. Top needs: Edge, S, LB

— 24. Chicago (10-4) — TJ Parker, Edge, Clemson, Jr.

The Bears will likely continue their search this offseason for an impact player to pair with Montez Sweat to boost an ineffective pass rush that is tied for 20th in the NFL with 29 sacks. Parker’s bull rush is devastating and he’s already a solid run defender. While this season hasn’t lived up to an eye-popping sophomore year where he had 11 sacks and six forced fumbles, his size (6-3, 265), advanced pass-rush repertoire, and ability to convert speed to power places him firmly in the first-round discussion. Top needs: T, Edge, S

— 25. L.A. Chargers (10-4) — Kayden McDonald, DL, Ohio State, Jr.

Chargers defensive linemen Teair Tart, Da’shawn Hand and Otito Ogbonnia will all be unrestricted free agents this offseason. Buckeyes defensive line coach Larry Johnson continues to churn out NFL-ready prospects. McDonald has been a game-wrecker for one of the most dominant defenses in the country, earning consensus All-American honors. Anchored by the 6-3, 330-pound devourer of double teams, Ohio State’s run defense is sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (84.46) and fifth in yards allowed per carry (2.83). Top needs: OL, Edge, DL

— 26. San Francisco (10-4) — Trevor Goosby, T, Texas, So.

The 49ers will release or trade Brandon Aiyuk after the season, which means this pick could very well be a wide receiver come April. But they also need to find a successor to groom behind future Hall of Famer Trent Williams at left tackle. The 6-foot-7, 312-pound Goosby started two games as a redshirt freshman, one at left tackle in the SEC Championship and one at right tackle in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. He earned first-team All-SEC recognition in his first season as a full-time starter for the Longhorns. He was the No. 17 player on Bruce Feldman’s 2025 “Freaks List,” reportedly clocking in with a max speed of 20 mph in the offseason. Top needs: OL, DB, WR

— 27. Buffalo (10-4) — Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee, Jr.

Veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White will be 31 in January and a free agent after the season. McCoy earned first-team All-SEC recognition last season with four interceptions for the Vols after transferring from Oregon State before tearing his ACL during an offseason training session in January. His 2024 tape showed elite ball skills with fluid athleticism and explosive closing speed. The type of talent who usually goes in the top half of the first round. NFL teams will scrutinize his medicals at the combine. Top needs: LB, WR, CB

— 28. Cleveland from Jacksonville (10-4) — Denzel Boston, WR, Washington, Jr.

The Browns look like they found building blocks on offense in this year’s draft with running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. They’ll need to reinforce an aging offensive line and add more weapons at receiver if they have any hopes of their new franchise QB succeeding, whomever he may be. Boston’s size (6-4, 210) and physicality enable him to win more than his fair share of jump balls, but the Huskie wideout is also a polished route-runner, especially on slants and comebacks. Boston also features the versatility to lineup outside or become a mismatch in the slot. Top needs: QB, T, CB

— 29. New England (11-3) — Matayo Uiagalelei, Edge, Oregon, Jr.

The Patriots’ only edge rushers under contract next season are Harold Landry, Anfernee Jennings and rookies Bradyn Swinson and Elijah Ponder. Uiagalelei’s blend of size (6-5, 270), strength and athleticism is what gets a defensive coordinator out of bed in the morning. Top needs: Edge, LB, S

— 30. Seattle (11-3) — Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee, So.

Cornerbacks Tariq Woolen, Josh Jobe and Derion Kendrick are all facing free agency after this season. Kendrick will be a restricted free agent. After transferring from Colorado, Hood helped the Volunteers fill the void created by the absence of Jermod McCoy. He’s a fiery, aggressive press corner who features the size (6-0, 195), speed and physicality to make plays in a man-heavy scheme. However, his instincts make him an ideal fit for the type of zone defense the Seahawks deploy under coach Mike Macdonald. Top needs: RB, CB, G

— 31. L.A. Rams (11-3) — Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina, Jr.

Cornerbacks Ahkello Witherspoon, Roger McCreary and Cobie Durant are all unrestricted free agents after this season. Cisse’s stock has risen after transferring from N.C. State and holding his own in the SEC. The former track athlete doesn’t have a hard time keeping pace with wide receivers downfield. While his speed is impressive — Cisse earned the nickname “Glitch” from his new teammates — it’s the 6-foot, 190-pound corner’s physicality and versatility that should set him apart during the draft process. Top needs: T, DB, QB

— 32. Denver (12-2) — Caleb Banks, DL, Florida, Sr.

The Broncos might have to address their stellar defensive line if John Franklin-Myers leaves in free agency. Banks surprised everyone by returning to Gainesville for his senior season. The Louisville transfer features the size (6-6, 325), length and explosive traits NFL defensive coordinators covet and QBs usually lose sleep over. He tends to rely on athleticism over technique, so coaching will be required to unlock his full potential in the pros. Banks missed nine games with a foot injury that required surgery in September, but was able to return and play against Tennessee and Florida State. This is impressive considering the Gators’ season was over long ago. Top needs: LB, DL, C

©2025 The San Diego Union-Tribune. Visit sandiegouniontribune.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.