Democrats distance themselves from trans rights – close midterm races may show whether that pays off | Political News

A wave of anti-transgender legislation has appeared in statehouses across the country over the past few years. Now, transgender issues are a recurring topic on the 2026 midterm campaign trail.

As a scholar of LGBTQ+ politics and history, I’ve noticed surprising trends in how Democrats in key states like Texas and Ohio talk about policies focused on transgender people, as the party vies for control of Congress.

With a rise in anti-trans rhetoric from the White House, some Democrats are using similar messaging in an attempt to secure undecided voters. In my assessment, this approach could alienate moderates, progressives and LGBTQ+ people more broadly.

Democratic candidates have split sharply on transition-related care and inclusion in school sports.

In Massachusetts, Rep. Seth Moulton came out against transgender girls competing in school sports, just days after President Donald Trump’s victory in November 2024. But Sen. Ed Markey, Moulton’s primary opponent for the Senate seat, took the opposite approach, stating his unwavering support for transgender rights.

Markey polled ahead of Moulton throughout 2026 and won the primary by nearly 30 percentage points. Public opinion data shows that two-thirds of Democratic likely primary voters in Massachusetts said they would be less likely to back a candidate who opposes transgender rights.

Other Democrats, especially in Southern and Midwestern states, are taking a more conservative approach to transgender rights. In Texas, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico has reversed his past support for transgender athletes.

Months after his March primary victory against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Talarico said in a Fox News interview that he would “oppose trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it endangers safety or fairness.”

According to scholars and media watchdog groups like GLAAD, appeals to “safety” and “fairness” are common anti-trans dog whistles that perpetuate misinformation about transgender athletes.

The shift has not resulted in a polling bump for Talarico in his race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polls of likely voters from July to early September gave Talarico an average lead of 3.16 percentage points. Polls since mid-September put his average lead at 2.66 percentage points.

Republican-aligned super PACs are also emphasizing transgender issues. Elon Musk’s America PAC has spent US$100 million on anti-trans ads in battleground states like Texas, Ohio and Alaska. Some of these ads feature people implied to be transgender women, though it is unclear whether they were actors or AI-generated.

With the prevalence of anti-trans ads, Democratic campaigns are responding in different ways. Some are veering to the right by mirroring GOP positions, like transgender exclusion from school sports.

Ohio offers clear examples of this gamble. In June, the state’s Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Amy Acton, made an anti-trans comment, referring to transgender girls as “boys.” This quickly drew criticism from statewide LGBTQ+ groups and community leaders.

In Ohio’s 9th congressional district, Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s campaign has run multiple anti-trans ads focusing on parental rights and transgender children in school sports, saying that the congresswoman voted to keep “transgender ideology” out of schools. The campaign also recently ran mailers with this message.

Kaptur’s county party condemned the ads, saying they were “disappointed and ashamed” of her campaign. When the state party’s Pride Caucus shared the county party’s statement on social media, the post was deleted. Pride Caucus members accused state party leadership of censorship; weeks later, transgender leaders from the caucus resigned in protest.

In contrast, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, has focused his campaign ads on affordability, data center regulations and the Epstein files without wavering on his support for transgender rights, as Acton and Kaptur have.

After a misleading super PAC ad about transgender healthcare from the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund, Brown’s campaign released a counter ad correcting the claim before pivoting to affordability.

Days later, the same GOP super PAC released another ad targeting Brown. Reporting has confirmed that the ad, which features an adult from Texas rather than Ohio, is factually inaccurate and misleading.

Recent polling suggests Brown is outperforming his fellow Democrat Acton, who is running for governor, by 2 percentage points. While these polls don’t isolate the effect of a single issue, Acton has faced criticism from the public, in addition to state and national LGBTQ+ organizations.

Amid rising prices on fuel and food, upticks in unemployment and a national hiring slowdown, consumer confidence in the economy has dropped to its lowest point in over a decade. Nationally, many Democrats are trying to emphasize these points. To counter that message, some Republicans continue to emphasize “culture war” issues like transgender rights.

Currently, Democrats outperform Republicans on the generic congressional ballot – a polling tool that asks voters which party they’d back without naming candidates. But messaging on transgender rights may be a tipping point for midterm voters.

As a growing electorate of 12% of the U.S. adult population and with a voter turnout rate of roughly 80%, LGBTQ+ people are a strong voting bloc. Recent polling indicates that two-thirds of LGBTQ+ adults said they would be extremely to somewhat comfortable with trans athletes competing on sports teams that don’t match their sex at birth.

In battleground states, anti-trans messages could cost votes and spell defeat for Democrats who rely on them. The risk is especially high in states like Ohio and Texas, where races are close and LGBTQ+ adults are estimated to make up more than 11% of the adult population.

In Texas, Talarico’s lead could be undone by depressed turnout among the Lone Star State’s 2.24 million LGBTQ+ adults. In Ohio, home to roughly 883,000 LGBTQ+ adults, Acton’s gubernatorial race and Kaptur’s congressional district race are both statistical ties.

With control of Congress up for grabs, campaign messaging missteps could have national implications.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Dorian Rhea Debussy, The Ohio State University

Dorian Rhea Debussy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.