Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff poll as vote nears

Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg News on Oct 19, 2026

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are locked in a tie less than a week ahead of Brazil’s runoff election, according to a new poll.

Bolsonaro would take 50.3% to Lula’s 49.7% of valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots, according to a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey published Monday. The senator held a 51.6%-48.4% advantage over the leftist incumbent in last week’s poll. The survey has a 2-point margin of error.

Bolsonaro would take 51.1% of valid votes to 48.9% for Lula, according to an AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News also published Monday. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point. The prior poll, released the week after the first round, found Bolsonaro leading 53%-47%.

Recent surveys have suggested that the race is tightening ahead of the Oct. 25 vote. Bolsonaro, a son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, surprisingly finished in front of Lula in the first round on Oct. 4, sparking a market rally as investors see him as more likely to pursue spending cuts to address Brazil’s sizable budget gaps.

Lula received a potential boost last week when the Senate approved his proposal to shorten the workweek, a popular measure he’s put at the center of his efforts to stage a comeback.

Bolsonaro, who’d previously backed an alternate proposal, reversed course ahead of the Senate vote, citing the popularity of the reduction in working hours among Brazilians. A 54% majority view the change as positive, against 39% who see it negatively, according to the AtlasIntel survey.

Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round vote has rebounded to win a runoff.

The two candidates faced off in a debate Sunday night, trading barbs over corruption, crime and Latin America’s largest economy.

BTG Pactual/Nexus interviewed 2,002 people between Oct. 16-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court at number BR-04499/2026.

AtlasIntel surveyed 4,998 people from Oct. 13-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point and a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with Brazil’s electoral court at BR-02418/2026.