Alberta early-voter surge suggests edge for Canadian side

Iain Boekhoff and Derek Decloet, Bloomberg News on Oct 16, 2026

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CALGARY, Canada — More than 1 million people have already cast their ballots in Alberta’s referendum on separation from Canada, signaling strong voter turnout that pollsters say may favor the “remain” side.

A spokesperson for the province’s election agency said more than 525,000 people voted in the first three days of in-person advance polls and 491,000 mail ballots have been processed to date.

The official voting day is Monday, but those who want to cast their ballot early can do so until Saturday evening. Residents of the energy-rich western province are weighing in on whether they want to remain part of Canada, or begin a process that could eventually lead to independence. If they choose the latter, a second vote would be held.

Public opinion surveys have suggested the “remain” side is well ahead. But pro-Canada campaigners have pushed to get people to voting centers, fearing that complacency and low turnout would benefit the separatist cause. There were roughly 3 million eligible voters in the province as of last year.

Fresh polling data from the Angus Reid Institute shows Albertans who want their province to stay in Canada are more likely now than a couple of months ago to say the referendum is “very important” for the future of Alberta.

“The vote motivation is significantly higher among remainers,” Shachi Kurl, the polling company's president, said in a phone interview. “They are seized with the gravity of the moment.”

Angus Reid’s latest survey, released Friday, puts the remain side at 66%, while 34% favor going further down the secession path.

Among those who choose the second option, however, 60% are motivated by “sending a message to Ottawa” and just 37% are motivated by actually wanting separation, the polling business said in a news release. The poll was an online randomized sample of about 1,000 Alberta residents, taken from Oct. 13 to 15.

The western province of 5 million people produces the vast majority of oil in Canada, the world’s fourth-largest supplier.

Political leaders are using the last few days before the vote to make their final push for national unity. Prime Minister Mark Carney was in Calgary on Thursday campaigning for Canada and plans to give another speech Friday night in Edmonton, the provincial capital.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre — who, like Carney, grew up in Alberta — called for its residents to “lock arms” with their fellow Canadians and reject the secession movement.

“Our real goal should not be separation. It should be restoration,” he told a Calgary audience on Friday. “It should not be to tear down our country, but to build it up.”

Poilievre argued the frustrations Albertans have with the federal government in Ottawa are shared across the country. “Canada is more than a government,” he said. “It is a people, a flag, a land, a history and a promise.”

While much of the debate around separation has focused on the ways the Canadian government has failed Alberta, the Conservative leader said leaving would deprive the province of the opportunities that come with being part of a larger country that has three coasts and a population of more than 41 million. He pointed to the large number of people who move to Alberta from other parts of Canada and make it a new home.

“Quitting is the easy way out and Albertans are not quitters,” he said.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called the referendum on separation, as well as nine other questions on immigration and constitutional issues. She voted to stay in Canada, she said Friday. She argued the way for frustrated Albertans to send a message to Ottawa was to support her in the other questions, which she said would strengthen provincial autonomy.

“The tide is turning,” she said at a Calgary event, citing new pipeline projects underway or proposed in the province as evidence of a more supportive federal government under Carney.

“For the first time in many years, Alberta and Canada are moving together,” she said, “and we are moving in the right direction.”