Despite a prediction of a slow hurricane season, up to five tropical systems could still make an impact on the United States this year, according to the forecast released Wednesday by AccuWeather.

One of the first annual prognostications for the season, which officially runs June 1-Nov. 30, calls for 11 to 16 named storms — of which four to seven would become hurricanes. Of those, two to four would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger.

The forecast also states that three to five of the tropical systems would have a direct impact on the U.S.

“It’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast,” said AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva in a press release. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”

The 2025 season ended up leaving the U.S. mostly untouched, with no landfalls from named systems despite some storms moving just offshore.

That slow year followed a 2024 season that slammed Florida with hurricanes Debbie, Helene and Milton all hitting the Gulf Coast, while two others hit elsewhere on the U.S.

DaSilva warned that warm waters could lead to rapid intensification near the U.S. coastlines, despite overall lower tropical activity because of a developing El Niño effect. That’s when ocean surface temperatures re warmer in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which in turn increase high altitude wind shear over the Atlantic in the summer and fall. That shear tends to rip apart hurricane development.

“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” he said. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”

AccuWeather predicts that areas with a higher-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts include the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline.

The potential for what is known as a Super El Niño, with temperatures rising 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, could mean a quieter back end of the six-month hurricane season. The normal busy season runs from mid-August to October with the climatological peak on Sept.10.

AccuWeather states that a normal El Niño season produced about 10 named storms and five hurricanes while the opposite side of the weather cycle, La Niña, sees about 15 named storms and eight hurricanes.

Other aspects that could hinder hurricane development this season is a Bermuda High that would push storms away from the U.S. coast in the western Atlantic and the potential for more Saharan dust spreading west from Africa across the Atlantic.

AccuWeather expects the Western Caribbean to be the most vulnerable, especially following the devastation brought by Category 5 Hurricane Melissa in 2025 to Jamaica and Cuba.

Last year had an average number of named storms, but some years that does not matter. The 1992 season, for instance, had only seven named storms, but that included Hurricane Andrew that struck South Florida.

“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”

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