Hurricane center gives low chance for system to form in Gulf

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jun 27, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

The National Hurricane Center began tracking a system in the Caribbean that could move into the Gulf waters off Mexico over the weekend with a chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

In its 8 a.m. Friday tropical outlook, the NHC stated the area of showers and thunderstorms was in the northwestern Caribbean Sea approaching Belize and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, but expected to move west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf waters on Saturday or Sunday where a low pressure area could form.

“Subsequent slow development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the system remains offshore of the coast of Mexico,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.”

The NHC first began tracking the system Thursday night. It gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that officially began on June 1 has been quiet so far with only one named storm — Tropical Storm Andrea — that formed for less than a day out in the middle of the Atlantic last week.

The next name on this season’s list is Barry.

It was the latest since 2014 that a named system had formed. That year the first named storm didn’t come until June 30.

Despite the late start, this year’s hurricane season is still predicted to be above-normal by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The agency predicts 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

-------------